CattleFax Meteorologist Foresees Return of El Niño
by Troy Smith for Angus Productions Inc.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Feb. 3, 2012) — For many cattle producers who regularly attend the annual Cattle Industry Convention, the CattleFax Outlook Seminar is a must-see event. At this year’s convention in Nashville, Tenn., CattleFax market analysts once again discussed factors affecting cattle and beef markets, including the weather. Veteran meteorologist Art Douglas offered a forecast based on the likely return of El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
Art Douglas Photo by Kasey Miller
According to Douglas, world weather patterns seem to be shifting away from La Niña (below normal Pacific temperatures), and the warming of waters off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador have been detected. Other signs associated with the arrival of El Niño include the return of moisture to parts of Texas and drier conditions in Australia. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the European Center Model and other agencies are predicting continued Pacific warming.
“Nearly all indicators make 2012 fit the historic model for El Niño start-up and we could see some impact on spring and summer weather conditions,” said Douglas. “El Niño seldom cures drought in all of Texas, and southern areas may remain dry. I expect good or at least adequate moisture in most of the U.S., otherwise.”
If El Niño strengthens, Douglas expects California to have a dry spring, but he expects cool and wet conditions in the Midwest. Weather patterns may mimic those seen in 2004 and 2009, with potential for delayed corn planting and some market anxiety. The summer could be cool and wet in much of the United States, except southern regions. Fall and winter may bring moisture across the South and Southwest, with drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains.
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